Assessing the Vulnerability of Vegetation to Future Climate in the North Central U.S.

Project Summary

Affiliation(s): North Central CSC

Principal Investigator(s):
  • Andrew Hansen (Montana State University)

Determining which species, habitats, or ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate change enables resource managers to better set priorities for conservation action. To address the need for information on vulnerability, this research project will leverage the expertise of university partners to inform the North Central Climate Science Center on how to best assess the vulnerability of elements of biodiversity to climate and land use change in order to inform the development and implementation of management options. Outcomes from this activity will include 1) a framework for modeling vegetation type and species response to climate and land use change, 2) an evaluation of existing alternative vegetation and species response models, and 3) a presentation of vulnerability assessments for managers for incorporation into climate adaptation strategies.

Rocky Mountain National Park - Credit: Alan Cressler

Affiliation(s): North Central CSC

Principal Investigator(s):
  • Andrew Hansen (Montana State University)
  • Diane Debinski (Iowa State University)
  • Bill Lauenroth (University of Wyoming)
  • Barry Noon (Colorado State University)

Start Date: September 2012

End Date: September 2016

Project Status: In Progress

Tags: Climate Change, Vulnerability Assessments, CSC, North Central CSC, 2012, Wildlife and Plants, Plants

Fiscal Year: FY 2012 Projects

Publications & Other

  • A “toad’s eye” view of drought: regional socio-natural vulnerability and responses in 2002 in Northwest Colorado

      • Colorado Climate Change Vulnerability Study

          • Complex Response of White Pines to Past Environmental Variability Increases Understanding of Future Vulnerability

              • Exposure of US National Parks to Land Use and Climate Change 1900-2100

                  • Extent of fragmentation of coarse-scale habitats in and around U.S. National Parks

                      • Natural Regeneration Processes in Big Sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata)

                          • Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

                                • Remote sensing for inventory and monitoring of the U.S. National Parks.

                                    • Sagebrush, greater sage-grouse, and the occurrence and importance of forbs

                                        • Seed bank and big sagebrush plant community composition in a range margin for big sagebrush

                                            • Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

                                                  • The ecology and management of moist mixed-conifer forests in eastern Oregon and Washington: a synthesis of the relevant biophysical science and implications for future land management

                                                      • Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales

                                                          • Vulnerability Assessment of Ecological Systems and Species to Climate and Land Use Change within the North Central Climate Change Center and Partner Land Conservation Cooperatives Final Report

                                                            • report_170306170550-NCCSC_FY12_Final_report_MSU.pdf (Download)
                                                            • Woodland Dynamics at the Northern Range Periphery: A Challenge for Protected Area Management in a Changing World


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